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SkyCash
Bot Status
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balance
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in positions
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Coverage
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markets
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days live
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closed trades

📍 Open Positions

No open positions — waiting for next scan cycle.
📜 Trade History — ▸

How SkyCash Thinks (v4)

21 cities × daily high & low temps = 42 markets. Buy the single highest-EV bracket per city per day.

The big idea: Weather markets are predictions about tomorrow's temperature. SkyCash finds where the weather ensemble models disagree with market prices — and bets when the models say a bracket is worth more than the crowd charges.

🧠 Two Signals, Blended

Physics Models — 65% weight
GFS (31 members) + ECMWF (51 members) = 82 supercomputer forecasts. The fraction landing in a bracket = ensemble probability. Must be ≥18 members with spread ≤4°F.
Market Crowd — 35% weight
Vig-adjusted ask prices — crowd's implied probability after stripping the house edge. 
  BUY DECISION
  ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

  model_p  = 0.65 × ensemble_p + 0.35 × vig_adjusted_p
  fair     = model_p × 100
  limit    = min(ask, fair − 3¢)
  EV       = model_p × 100 − (limit + maker_fee)

  if EV ≥ 7¢
   AND (ensemble_p − vig_p) ≥ 6.5%
   AND n_in_bracket ≥ 18 of 82 members
   AND ensemble_std ≤ 4°F
    →  buy 1 contract (best EV bracket per city)
  otherwise
    →  sit out
🌤️
Scan 21 Cities Every 10 Min
Active window: 10 AM – 3 PM ET (14:00–19:00 UTC). High + low temp for each city = 42 market series.
🧮
Compute EV for Every Bracket
Fetch live orderbook + 82-member ensemble forecast. Blend 65/35. Calculate EV after maker fee.
🎯
Buy the Single Best Bracket
Pick highest-EV bracket. One per city per day. Must clear EV ≥ 7¢, ensemble edge ≥ 6.5%, ≥18 members in bracket, std ≤4°F.
⏳
Ride to Settlement
No active exits. Win = $1.00, Loss = $0.00. Settlement 16–32h after entry.
Gates (All Must Pass)
  • ≥ 3 brackets in series (liquidity check)
  • Series volume ≥ 200 contracts
  • 16–32 hours to settlement
  • Bracket volume ≥ 200 contracts
  • model_p ≥ 32%
  • Price 15–45¢
  • EV ≥ 7¢ after maker fee
  • Ensemble edge over crowd ≥ 6.5%
  • ≥18 of 82 ensemble members in bracket
  • Ensemble spread ≤ 4°F (model agreement)
  • Bid/ask spread ≤ 8¢ (liquidity)
  • Position cost ≤ 10% of balance
  • Not already held or placed today

Edge = ensemble forecast alpha vs crowd. 1 contract per bracket, resting limit at fair value. All trades logged to Supabase.